Deloitte's 4.8% Holiday Forecast Hands Off-Price a Tailwind and Squeezes Discretionary Big-Box

Deloitte projects holiday spending to land between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion, up from $1.63 trillion last year. The headline growth band sits 60-110 basis points wider than the 2024 season and reverses last year's step-down from 4.2% growth in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025. The kicker is online: e-commerce is forecast to climb to $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, a step up from $294 billion the prior year.

The three largest US off-price chains delivered Q2 results in August2026 that line up almost perfectly with the Deloitte forecast's underlying thesis. Ross Stores posted a 10% comparable-store gain on top of last year's 5%, TJX raised full-year EPS guidance after a 4% comp beat, and Burlington's2% comp came on top of a5% prior-year base. The model works precisely because off-price retailers stock closeout inventory and pass the tariff bill back to brands rather than to consumers.

TJX raised FY2027 EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.20 and outlined a long-term 7,500-store target at the August update, while Ross comps are running2.5x TJX's and5x Burlington's. The off-price category is taking share inside the 4-4.8% headline, not just riding it.

The 'stress for big-box' framing is half right. Walmart and Costco — the two biggest-volume US retailers — are pulling traffic because essentials and memberships insulate them from discretionary trade-down, while Target and Best Buy sit closer to discretionary-tariff pain. The latest reported quarters confirm the split.

Deloitte's online growth band of 7.5-8.4% is nearly double the offline rate, and the math is simple: e-commerce is the only place a4-4.8% headline can deliver 7%+ growth for a single channel. The platform beneficiaries are concentrated; the carrier beneficiaries are nearly universal. Amazon reported +19.6% TTM revenue growth through Q2 2026, well above the broader retail pace, and Shopify delivered +33.7% quarterly revenue growth, reflecting direct-to-consumer infrastructure pulling holiday volume.

On the logistics side, UPS and FedEx are positioned to absorb the parcel-volume tailwind. UPS TTM revenue is $89.9B with operating margin at 7.3%, and FedEx posted +12.5% quarterly revenue growth despite a -4.3% earnings decline tied to its freight spin-off. Holiday parcel volume historically tracks e-commerce growth within a two-to-three-point band — meaning7.5-8.4% online likely translates to mid-single-digit parcel growth for the carriers.

The causal chain is short. Tariff inflation on imported apparel, electronics, and home goods has pushed retail prices higher. Bain's competing 2026 Holiday Outlook, released September 3, 2026, pegs nominal holiday growth at 4.5% — close to Deloitte's midpoint — but cites a personal savings rate of just 2.7%, credit-card delinquencies above the 10-year average, and reduced SNAP benefits as the wallet pressure. Against that backdrop, off-price's opportunistic buying model absorbs tariff pressure at the supplier level rather than the shelf.

A 4-4.8% holiday headline is good news for total retail but neutral for stock picking. The thesis is the channel mix inside it: e-commerce's 7.5-8.4% growth hands disproportionate share to platforms and carriers, and the value-seeking consumer hands disproportionate share to off-price. Discretionary big-box — Target and Best Buy most acutely — sits between those two currents and absorbs the tariff bill. Essentials-scale big-box — Walmart and Costco — is insulated by its own volume. The horizon question is whether 2027 looks more like 2024 (3-4% range) or whether the consumer re-accelerates. Watch the Q4 results from off-price for confirmation that the trade-down is sticky.