Burry's $1.1B AI Puts Are Scion's Last 13F Ever — and He's Already Unwound the December Legs insight cover
Markets / EventPLTR · NVDA · ORCL•12 min read

Burry's $1.1B AI Puts Are Scion's Last 13F Ever — and He's Already Unwound the December Legs

Scion Asset Management's Q3 2025 13F, filed on November 3, 2025 — seven days before the firm deregistered with the SEC — remains the canonical record of Michael Burry's $1.1B bearish bet on Palantir and Nvidia, and the only 13F the fund will ever file again. On September 9, 2026, Burry used his Substack \"Cassandra Unchained\" to disclose that he has closed every December 2026 put on both names, citing \"rapid time-based decay,\" and is sitting on cash while the Nvidia AI capex trade and Palantir commercial growth story play out. The thesis put is still open only on long-dated January 2027 Palantir puts — which means the original $1.1B headline reads very differently in the rear-view than it did ten months ago.

Published Sep 18, 2026Updated Sep 18, 2026

Palantir puts, Dec 2026

~$912M notional

Closed in early September 2026, per Substack

Nvidia puts, Dec 2026

~$187M notional

Closed in early September 2026, per Substack

Palantir puts, Jan 2027 ($50 strike)

$9.2M premium

50,000 contracts, ~5M underlying shares, retained

Other Burry shorts (per Substack, Sep 2026)

ORCL, NBIS, NVDA, PLTR, SOXX

Plus QQQ 2027 puts; LULU/MOH/MELI longs kept

Michael Burry's most-cited trade of the post-2022 cycle is no longer just a 13F line — it is a closed fund's last footnote, and the trader himself has already trimmed it. Scion Asset Management filed its Q3 2025 13F-HR on November 3, 2025; the firm's SEC registration was terminated seven days later, on November 10, 2025. Almost ten months on, the filing has now been re-published as the \"final 13F\" in outlets from the Globe and Mail to Yahoo Finance — and Burry used his September 9, 2026 Substack post to confirm that roughly half the notional value in Palantir and Nvidia puts has already been closed.

Timeline

The Sequence That Made It a 'Final 13F'

The reason the timing is the trade is that the three signals came in reverse of how the market read them. On October 27, 2025, Burry wrote to investors saying he would \"liquidate the funds and return capital — but for a small audit/tax holdback — by year's end.\" Only on November 3 did the 13F appear in EDGAR, disclosing 50,000 Palantir put contracts and 10,000 Nvidia put contracts with combined notional value of about $1.1 billion. A week after that, on November 10, the SEC's IAPD database flipped Scion's status to \"terminated.\" Investors who saw the put headline without the closure letter got a fresh bearish bet; investors who saw the closure letter first got a legacy position being wound down.

The October–November 2025 sequence

Three disclosures in 14 days — and only the middle one is a 13F.

Unit: Step

Oct 27, 2025

Burry's investor letter: liquidate Scion by year-end

1

Nov 3, 2025

Q3 2025 13F-HR filed; $1.1B PLTR + NVDA puts disclosed

2

Nov 10, 2025

Scion's SEC adviser registration marked \"terminated\"

3

Sep 9, 2026

Substack: Dec 2026 NVDA & PLTR puts closed in full

4

The 13F is a quarterly disclosure — it captures September 30, 2025 positions, not a fresh bet. With no successor filing, this snapshot locks in as Scion's permanent public record even though Burry himself has been actively trading since.

Holdings

What Was Actually in the Final 13F

The Q3 2025 information table, filed by Scion on November 3, 2025 (period of report September 30, 2025), reports total holdings value of $1.381 billion across eight lines. The bearish book is dominated by Palantir puts — a notional of $912.1 million on 5,000,000 underlying shares — with a smaller Nvidia put of $186.58 million on 1,000,000 shares. The bullish book is two large call positions, plus a tight equity sleeve.

Scion Asset Management 13F-HR, period ended Sep 30, 2025 (filed Nov 3, 2025). All figures per SEC information table.
IssuerPositionShares (underlying)Value ($K)% of $1.38B portfolio
Palantir TechnologiesPut5,000,000912,10066.0%
NvidiaPut1,000,000186,58013.5%
PfizerCall6,000,000152,88011.1%
HalliburtonCall2,500,00061,5004.5%
Molina HealthcareCommon125,00023,9201.7%
Lululemon AthleticaCommon100,00017,7931.3%
SLM CorpCommon480,05413,2881.0%
Bruker 6.375% Pref Ser APreferred48,33413,1371.0%
Put options on Palantir and Nvidia accounted for 79.5% of the entire $1.38B portfolio — a level of single-theme concentration that no other public 13F has approached this cycle.

The September 2026 update

Burry Has Already Cut the Trade

On September 9, 2026, Burry posted a \"Trading Post\" on Cassandra Unchained and confirmed via subsequent Yahoo Finance and Seeking Alpha reporting that he had exited every December 2026 Nvidia put and every December 2026 Palantir put. Stated reason: \"rapid time-based decay.\" He added that he is \"happy to sit on\" cash while watching how markets develop through the fall. The only AI-related bearish exposure Burry has publicly retained is the long-dated January 2027 Palantir puts — 50,000 contracts at a $50 strike, for which he paid about $9.2 million in premium — plus 2027 puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust and outright short positions in Oracle, Nebius, Nvidia, Palantir, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.

Palantir puts, Dec 2026

~$912M notional

Closed in early September 2026, per Substack

Nvidia puts, Dec 2026

~$187M notional

Closed in early September 2026, per Substack

Palantir puts, Jan 2027 ($50 strike)

$9.2M premium

50,000 contracts, ~5M underlying shares, retained

Other Burry shorts (per Substack, Sep 2026)

ORCL, NBIS, NVDA, PLTR, SOXX

Plus QQQ 2027 puts; LULU/MOH/MELI longs kept

In dollar terms the closed December 2026 book was almost the entire original disclosure — roughly $1.1 billion of notional exit between them — while the surviving January 2027 Palantir puts represent only about $9.2 million of premium at risk. The asymmetry is the point: Burry has converted a high-conviction headline position into a low-cost long-tail hedge.

Signal read

Why the 'Fresh Conviction' Read Is Now Wrong

  • The trade was placed at peak AI froth. The Q3 2025 cut-off is the period when the Nvidia and Palantir tape was at or near its strongest sentiment reading of the cycle — a poor entry for a put writer even before the math.
  • Burry said he was leaving before the 13F disclosed the puts. The October 27 liquidation letter predated the November 3 filing by a week; markets priced the 13F without knowing the fund was already being unwound.
  • The thesis puts are now collapsing under time decay, not conviction. Burry's stated reason for exiting the December 2026 legs is \"rapid time-based decay\" — a position-management decision, not a thesis reversal.
  • The trade that survived is tiny. The remaining Palantir January 2027 puts cost $9.2M in premium versus the $912M notional of the December leg — a long-tail hedge, not a sized bet.
  • The market has not confirmed Burry's view. Nvidia reported Q2 FY2027 revenue of $96.2 billion on August 26, 2026, up 106% year on year, with Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion up 117%; Palantir raised FY 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15–$8.16 billion on August 3, 2026, implying about 82% growth.
  • Visibility has collapsed. No successor 13F can be filed after deregistration; Burry now discloses on Substack behind a $439/year paywall, which means future position changes trade as paid-subscriber-only intelligence.
The original \"Burry shorts AI\" headline functioned as a closing fund's legacy filing, not a live bearish bet — and the trader who placed it has since confirmed that by exiting nearly all of it.

Cross-asset spillover

Where the AI Trade Is Still Real

Even after the Burry trim, the AI capex story he was betting against is the dominant fundamental in the data-center supply chain. Nvidia guided Q3 FY2027 revenue to roughly $108 billion on the same August 26, 2026 call. Taiwan Semiconductor reported HPC at 55% of Q4 2025 revenue, up from 40% in 2022, and guided AI-chip revenue to compound at a mid-to-high-fifties percentage rate through 2029 — the same thesis Burry was bearish on has, in Nvidia's own numbers, been pulling forward by at least twelve months.

The fundamental backdrop the puts were supposed to bet against.
MetricPeriodValueSource
Nvidia revenueQ2 FY2027 (qtr end Jul 26, 2026)$96.2B, +106% YoYNvidia earnings release, Aug 26, 2026
Nvidia Data Center revenueQ2 FY2027$89.0B, +117% YoYNvidia earnings release, Aug 26, 2026
Nvidia Q3 FY2027 revenue guideQuarter ending Oct 2026~$108BNvidia earnings call, Aug 26, 2026
Palantir FY2026 revenue guideFY2026 (raised Aug 3, 2026)$8.15–$8.16B (~82% YoY)Palantir Q2 2026 press release
Palantir Q2 2026 revenue growthQ2 2026+93% YoYPalantir Q2 2026 press release
Taiwan Semi HPC mixQ4 202555% of net revenue (vs. 40% in 2022)TSMC Q4 2025 earnings
Industry AI capex (Nvidia view)Through 2030$3–4 trillion cumulativeNvidia investor commentary, 2025–2026

The bear case has not disappeared — Palantir still trades on a trailing EV/Sales of about 65x and a forward P/E near 148x, while Nvidia trades closer to 23x EV/EBITDA on TTM. But the puts Burry originally wrote were sized for the deal collapsing inside six months. With that window now closed and the December 2026 legs unwound, the only remaining public expression of his view is a small, deep-out-of-the-money Palantir January 2027 position.

Investable read-through from the final 13F

PPalantir TechnologiesPLTR--
--Vol --
-
Mixed
  • Burry's only surviving AI put is on PLTR (Jan 2027, $50 strike, $9.2M premium) — the largest legacy short in the final 13F at $912.1M notional, now reduced to a long-tail hedge.
  • Q2 2026 revenue grew 93% YoY and management raised FY 2026 guidance to $8.15–$8.16B (~82% growth), undermining the original \"intrinsic value below $1\" thesis in the short term.
  • Trailing EV/Sales near 65x and forward P/E near 148x leave the stock priced for the bear case Burry was betting on — but that is now a 2027 tail, not a 2026 catalyst.
NNVIDIANVDA--
--Vol --
-
Bullish
  • Burry has fully exited the December 2026 NVDA put leg and confirmed he is sitting on cash through fall 2026 — the bearish overhang from Scion's $187M notional position is gone.
  • Q2 FY2027 revenue of $96.2B (+106% YoY) and Q3 guide near $108B, with Data Center revenue +117% YoY, are the fundamental backdrop that was supposed to crack inside the put's life.
  • Short-term (days–quarters): the largest publicly-known bearish position has already been closed, removing a known supply-of-hedge overhang; long-term (1–3 years), Burry remains short via SOXX and NBIS, keeping the bear thesis alive at the basket level.
OOracleORCL--
--Vol --
-
Bearish
  • Burry's September 2026 Substack update lists ORCL among his retained shorts — the AI-debt-funding thesis he first raised against hyperscaler accounting in late 2025 is still positioned.
  • Oracle has been the marquee example of debt-funded AI capex; the stock bears watching as Burry's only large-cap retained short outside PLTR/NVDA.
  • Short-term catalyst: any quarterly disclosure of AI-related debt build or capex deferral; long-term (1–3 years): the depreciation-extension EPS argument Burry has run since 2025.
NNebius GroupNBIS--
--Vol --
-
Bearish
  • NBIS is one of five names Burry publicly disclosed as retained short on his September 9, 2026 Substack post — the AI infrastructure pure-play is in his cross-hairs alongside the mega-caps.
  • Small-cap AI infrastructure names with concentrated customer books are the cleanest expression of the customer-concentration risk Burry named against Nvidia.
  • Short-term (days–quarters): thinly traded and prone to squeeze risk on any AI-infrastructure spending surprise; long-term: directly exposed to the same hyperscaler capex thesis the bull case for NVDA depends on.
TTaiwan SemiconductorTSM--
--Vol --
-
Watch
  • Burry's original thesis was that AI capex rolls over; TSMC's Q4 2025 HPC mix at 55% of revenue (up from 40% in 2022) is the cleanest confirmation the cycle is still expanding.
  • Watch the Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 HPC mix: any deceleration would be the first fundamental signal that the bear case is materializing.
  • Long-term (1–3 years): TSMC's AI-chip revenue is guided to compound at a mid-to-high-fifties percentage rate through 2029 — the AI capex pipeline Burry was betting against is now baked into TSMC's outlook.
QInvesco QQQ TrustQQQ--
--Vol --
-
Mixed
  • Burry retains 2027 puts on QQQ alongside the long-tail PLTR puts — he is hedging the broad market, not just the AI basket.
  • QQQ is the cleanest expression of the \"everything bubble\" framing Burry has used on Cassandra Unchained, where mega-cap tech now dominates index returns.
  • Short-term: cheap portfolio hedge given index concentration in NVDA/MSFT/PLTR/AVGO/GOOG; long-term: any mean reversion in mega-cap leadership is the trigger.
SiShares Semiconductor ETFSOXX--
--Vol --
-
Bearish
  • Burry disclosed SOXX as a retained short position on his September 9, 2026 Substack — the basket-level bear bet remains in place even after NVDA puts closed.
  • SOXX is dominated by NVDA, AVGO, AMD, TXN, MU, and INTC — holding the short expresses skepticism about the entire silicon supply chain rather than one stock.
  • Short-term (days–quarters): the cleanest hedge against AI capex rolling over; long-term: a meaningful Burry position that will surface on his Substack before any 13F would have.