Forge Nano Just Put Atomic-Layer Materials on the US Tape. The $199M Trust Walkout Resets the Math. insight cover
IPOATII · LRCX · ASMIY•14 min read

Forge Nano Just Put Atomic-Layer Materials on the US Tape. The $199M Trust Walkout Resets the Math.

Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II shareholders cleared the Forge Nano merger 93.3%–7.2% on Oct 16, sending the atomic-layer deposition specialist public as NANO/NANOW within days. The headline $1.2B pre-money valuation hides a real squeeze: $199M of trust cash was redeemed just before the vote, slashing the planned cash-to-balance-sheet from $417M to closer to $218M, and management is committing that thinner pool to a 3 GWh battery gigafactory that won't produce a cell until 2028. The investment angle isn't the SPAC vote itself — it's the structural pull on Lam Research, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, ASM International, and the silicon-anode defense-battery thesis that just got its first pure-play feedstock.

Published Oct 19, 2026Updated Oct 19, 2026

Vote in favor (Business Combination)

93.3%

15,416,866 FOR vs 1,113,414 AGAINST at Oct 16, 2026 EGM

Pre-money equity value

$1.2B

Implied by merger agreement; pro forma EV ~$1.28B

Trust cash redeemed before vote

$199M

Oct 12, 2026; reduced $244M trust to ~$45M

2027 revenue forecast (Phase 1)

$76M

Up from $14.5M in 2025A and $40M projected2026

Vote in favor (Business Combination)

93.3%

15,416,866 FOR vs 1,113,414 AGAINST at Oct 16, 2026 EGM

Pre-money equity value

$1.2B

Implied by merger agreement; pro forma EV ~$1.28B

Trust cash redeemed before vote

$199M

Oct 12, 2026; reduced $244M trust to ~$45M

2027 revenue forecast (Phase 1)

$76M

Up from $14.5M in 2025A and $40M projected2026

Phase 2 base-case annual revenue

$460M

At 40 semi tools + 3 GWh battery cell production

DOE grant backing the gigafactory

$100M

Non-dilutive; covers ~1/3 of Morrisville NC build

The mechanics

The Vote Passed Cleanly — the Net Work Just Got Harder

Every one of the eight proposals at Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II's Oct 16 extraordinary meeting passed, including the domestication, the merger itself, the staggered board, the equity incentive plan, and the charter amendments. Of 29,590,000 ordinary shares entitled to vote, 16,530,280 were represented — a 55.9% turnout. The headline business-combination proposal drew 15,416,866 votes in favor against 1,113,414 against, a 93.3%–7.2% margin.

What cleared was the same deal Archimedes II signed on April 21, 2026: Forge Nano lists on NASDAQ as NANO (common) and NANOW (warrants), at a $1.2B pre-money equity valuation and a $1.278B pro forma enterprise value. Existing Forge Nano shareholders end up with roughly 71% of the combined company; Archimedes II's public shareholders and trust cash fill the balance. Up to 90 million additional shares — worth $900M at the $10.00 reference price — sit in an earnout tied to hitting $15, $20, or $25 share prices, or $400M, $600M, or $800M of trailing-twelve-month revenue, within five years.

Closing is \"expected in the coming days,\" per the Oct 16 press release — but the cap table has already moved. $199M of Archimedes II trust cash was redeemed on Oct 12, four days before the EGM, dropping the trust from $244M to roughly $45M and forcing a deadline extension to April 9, 2027.

That single redemption is the most important number in the entire deal. The pre-merger investor presentation modeled $237M of trust cash flowing to the balance sheet alongside $200M of PIPE commitments, producing $417M of net cash at closing. After redemptions, even with the PIPE upsized to $123M (raised from an initial $100M in July), the net cash position lands closer to $168M of new capital plus the $97M Series D already in the bank — roughly half the original bridge.

The bigger story

Atomic-Layer Deposition Hits Two Demand Curves at Once

Forge Nano's technology — branded \"Atomic Armor\" — is the same ALD chemistry Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, Applied Materials, and ASM International sell into front-end fabs, retuned for two adjacent markets. The first is the chip industry itself: Forge Nano has demonstrated high-speed, defect-free ALD coatings at a 1,000:1 aspect ratio, a profile the company claims runs roughly 10× faster than competing approaches. That matters most at the advanced-packaging layer, where 2.5-D and3-D memory stacks and high-bandwidth-memory interconnects need conformal coatings deep inside features that older tools can't reach without throughput penalties.

The second market is lithium-ion batteries — specifically the cathode, anode, and separator surfaces that determine cycle count, energy density, and thermal-runaway resistance. Forge Nano's pitch is that a sub-nanometer ALD skin acts as a \"nano-scale firewall,\" suppressing solid-electrolyte interphase growth and dendrite formation. The result, on company-disclosed testing, is meaningfully longer cycle life and tighter thermal stability for cells destined for defense, aerospace, and grid storage.

Global ALD equipment market (2026)

$10.3B

Fortune Business Insights; projected $20.8B by 2034

Lithium-ion battery market by 2034

$349B

Per Forge Nano IR materials; total TAM including semi ALD = $359B

Forge Nano 2026 potential bookings

$60M+

Semiconductor pipeline; up 25% year-to-date per April 2026 BCA presentation

Battery LOIs on file

21 GWh

Across Morrisville facility; binding off-take signed for part of capacity

The catalyst

The 2028 NDAA Mandate Just Got a Domestic Feedstock

The National Defense Authorization Act battery-sourcing rules that take effect in 2028 require all new Department of War acquisition programs — and by 2029, standard batteries too — to use domestically-sourced lithium-ion components. That is the policy event Forge Nano is built around. Without a U.S.-based ALD-equipped cell manufacturer at scale, the mandate had no domestic supply to point at.

The company's Morrisville, North Carolina site answers that. The expansion takes an existing 100,000-square-foot operation to roughly 315,000 square feet and adds about 3 GWh of annual battery cell capacity — enough, on the company's own sizing, for 10–20 million drone batteries, 34,000 electric military vehicles, 6 million BB-2590 radio batteries, 900 6T-format tanks, or ~275 energy-storage containers per year. Production is scheduled to begin in 2028, the exact year the NDAA rules begin to bind. The U.S. Department of Energy has committed up to $100 million in non-dilutive funding; on a total budget above $300 million, that grant covers roughly a third of the build.

  • Samsung SDI anchored the strategic stack with a $20M commitment in July 2026 — $10M into Series D and $10M into the PIPE — and signed a conditional procurement agreement to purchase cells out of Morrisville from 2028. Forge Nano simultaneously became an authorized contract manufacturer and U.S. distributor for Samsung SDI cells.
  • Group14 Technologies, the silicon-carbon anode startup, signed a binding collaboration in May 2026 pairing its SCC55® material with Forge Nano's Atomic Armor coating inside U.S.-made cells.
  • Atomic Armor-coated battery materials are already in orbit: Spire Global satellites launched via SpaceX use ALD-coated lithium-ion cells, validating the chemistry for aerospace buyers.
  • GM Ventures led a $10M strategic investment in October 2024, with Volkswagen, Air Liquide, and LG Technology Ventures on the cap table alongside Hanwha Aerospace — every name is either a battery offtake, a precursor supplier, or an automotive anchor.

The unit math

What $199M of Redemptions Actually Changes

The redemption flow is the under-appreciated variable in this deal. ATII priced its $230M IPO in February 2025 at $10.00 per unit. As of April 9, 2026, the trust held $244M — interest accrual had already pushed the trust above the IPO raise. The Oct 12 redemption of $199M left approximately $45M, implying roughly 19.9M of the original 23M units (plus any post-IPO holders) walked away rather than roll into the new ticker. That is an 86% redemption rate among trust claimants.

The redemption rate is high but not catastrophic for the surviving entity. Forge Nano's $97M Series D closed before the vote, the PIPE upsized to $123M, and the DOE grant is non-dilutive — so the public company still has roughly $265M of liquidity at closing, plus a $900M earnout lever if it executes on the $76M-to-$460M revenue ramp.

The math that matters: at a $76M Phase 1 revenue base in 2027, the deal is priced at roughly 16.8× forward sales before earnout. Phase 2 base case — 40 ALD tools per year at $1.5M ASP plus 3 GWh of battery cells at $150/kWh — implies ~$460M of annual revenue, or about 2.8× forward sales at the $1.278B EV. The medium scenario (106 tools at $1.75M, 3 GWh at $175/kWh) takes that to ~$882M annually. None of this is delivered until 2028+; until then, the stock is a 2027-vintage call option on the 2028 production start.

Forge Nano revenue scenarios from the post-BCA investor presentation
ScenarioSemi tools / yearASP per toolBattery priceAnnual revenue potential
Phase 1 actual 2025———$14.5M
Phase 1 forecast 2026———$40.1M
Phase 1 forecast 2027———$76.1M
Phase 2 base case40$1.50M$150/kWh$460M
Phase 2 medium case106$1.75M$175/kWh$882M
Phase 2 high case225$1.85M$250/kWh$1.08B+

The SPAC angle

Archimedes Has Done This Once Before — and It Worked

Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II is a clone of Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners Co., the vehicle that closed its merger with SoundHound AI in April 2022. Same chairman (Eric Ball, founding general partner of Impact Venture Capital), same CEO (Long Long). SoundHound came public at a roughly $2B implied valuation and trades today at a market cap in the multi-billion-dollar range — not a home run by recent SPAC standards, but a credible surviving listing.

The mechanics matter here. SPACs that redeem80%+ of trust cash typically de-list within 24 months. Archimedes II's 86% redemption rate is in that danger zone, but the structure differs: the PIPE was upsized by $23M during the marketing window to compensate for the trust shrinkage, and the Series D closed separately. Forge Nano's pre-vote communication included an SEC registration-statement effectiveness and antitrust clearance, both prerequisites for closing. The deal still needs the final closing filings, but the procedural gating is done.

  • Short-term (days–quarters): Watch the closing8-K and the first NANO/NANOW trading days. Trust-investor mechanics mean a high probability of a sub-$10 print in the first weeks as remaining unit holders sell. The earnout-trigger stock prices ($15/$20/$25) define the realistic upside bridge over 5 years.
  • Long-term (1–3 years): The gigafactory production start in 2028 is the load-bearing event. Until cells ship to Samsung SDI, defense primes, and other U.S. customers, the deal is essentially pre-revenue against a Phase 2 forecast. The first Samsung SDI procurement volumes in 2028 are the cleanest catalyst.
  • Cross-industry spillover: Lam Research, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, and ASM International already dominate the front-end ALD market; the upside for them is the semi-ALD TAM moving from $5B (2025) toward the $9.8B mark Forge Nano cites by 2034, plus a new battery-cell customer cohort that does not currently buy chip-fab tools.

The setup

What Could Break the Thesis

Three risks sit on top of the file. First, the cash bridge: a $218M-ish net cash position against a $300M+ gigafactory budget leaves a meaningful funding gap before DOE milestones pay out. The Series D, PIPE, and DOE grant are committed but not all drawn. Second, customer concentration: Samsung SDI is both strategic investor and conditional offtake counterparty; if the conditional procurement slips beyond 2028, Phase 2 revenue slips with it. Third, competitive pressure from Amprius Technologies, which has been qualifying silicon-anode cells as NDAA-compliant since at least March 2026 and shipped more than 4.2 million cells to date. EnerSys, the incumbent defense-battery supplier, retains the installed-base advantage on BB-2590 and 6T formats that Forge Nano is targeting.

Forge Nano isn't a battery company or a chip company in the conventional mold — it is an equipment-and-process layer selling into both. The thesis is that domestic ALD capacity unlocks NDAA-compliant cell manufacturing at scale. The vote cleared the listing, but 2028 production data will clear the science.

Stocks this event actually touches

AArchimedes Tech SPAC Partners II Co.ATII--
--Vol --
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Watch
  • Ticker flips to NANO/NANOW within days after the Oct 16 vote and remaining closing filings; expect a sub-$10 opening as trust holders exit.
  • Earnout milestones ($15/$20/$25 stock prices OR $400M/$600M/$800M TTM revenue) define the five-year return bridge — revenue triggers matter more than share price triggers in a thin float.
  • $199M of pre-vote redemptions leave ~$45M of trust cash at closing, capping downside if the despac trades poorly.
LLam Research CorporationLRCX--
--Vol --
-
Bullish
  • Front-end ALD incumbent (ALTUS Halo for molybdenum ALD) — benefits from the semi-ALD TAM moving from $5B in 2025 toward $9.8B by 2034.
  • Forge Nano's high-speed 1,000:1 aspect-ratio tool signals that HBM and advanced-packaging ALD is a meaningful new sub-market, not just a feature of leading-edge logic.
  • Backlog expansion at Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, and ASM International follows the same TAM math — the equipment complex lifts together.
AASM International NVASMIY--
--Vol --
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Bullish
  • ALD market-share leader alongside Lam Research and Applied Materials; a Forge Nano listing widens the ALD buyer base to include defense-battery cell manufacturers.
  • Shares at €753 on Euronext Amsterdam imply ~€36.6B market cap; U.S.-listed ASMIY ADR gives direct access without going via ASM (Amsterdam) routing.
  • If Morrisville hits 3 GWh output in 2028, the next 5+ GWh U.S. cell plants will need ALD tool capacity that incumbents must supply alongside any Forge Nano inroads.
AApplied Materials Inc.AMAT--
--Vol --
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Bullish
  • ALD is one of four pillar deposition technologies in Applied Materials's lineup; TAM expansion to $9.8B by 2034 lifts the entire deposition segment.
  • Forge Nano's positioning as a complementary (not competing) tool vendor for advanced packaging and battery materials preserves Applied Materials's front-end dominance.
  • Domestic-content tailwind from NDAA 2028 favors U.S.-headquartered equipment suppliers when U.S. fabs (TSMC Arizona, Samsung Texas, Intel Ohio) order deposition tools.
TTokyo Electron LimitedTOELY--
--Vol --
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Bullish
  • NT333 and successor ALD tools sit at the front-end of the same TAM Forge Nano is targeting — semi-ALD expansion lifts Tokyo Electron's deposition backlog in lockstep.
  • Battery-coating adjacency is a new vertical for Tokyo Electron; the gigafade of Morrisville + 5+ GWh of follow-on capacity creates a multi-billion-dollar adjacent tool market.
AAmprius Technologies Inc.AMPX--
--Vol --
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Mixed
  • Direct competitor for NDAA-compliant defense-battery cell supply: Amprius Technologies has shipped 4.2M+ silicon-anode cells and qualified 11 critical components as NDAA-compliant, while Forge Nano's first cells ship in 2028.
  • Both companies win if the NDAA-mandated demand pool expands faster than either can supply; Amprius Technologies loses share if Forge Nano's atomic-armor silicon cells match cycle-life claims at scale.
  • The Feb 2026 Nanotech Energy partnership gives Amprius Technologies a U.S. silicon-anode production bridge Forge Nano must match via Group14 silicon-carbon material.
EEnerSysENS--
--Vol --
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Bearish
  • Incumbent defense-battery supplier on BB-2590, 6T, and aerospace formats — Forge Nano's Morrisville output targets exactly these SKUs at 6M BB-2590 / 900 6T units per year at full capacity.
  • Samsung SDI cell distribution through Forge Nano adds a low-cost foreign-brand path into EnerSys's installed base; pricing pressure likely 2028+.
  • Mitigant: EnerSys holds long-standing DoD qualification on legacy formats; displacement is slow, not sudden.
0Samsung SDI Co., Ltd.006400.KS--
--Vol --
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Bullish
  • Already a $20M strategic anchor ($10M Series D + $10M PIPE) and conditional procurement counterparty for Morrisville cells starting 2028 — the U.S. distribution deal gives Samsung SDI a domestic-manufactured route into defense customers.
  • Samsung SDI sells at KRW 574,000 (Oct 2026) and roughly $30B market cap; U.S. defense demand tailwind via Morrisville 2028+ is incremental upside on top of existing EV battery business.
  • Forge Nano's Group14 silicon-carbon integration mirrors Samsung SDI's own silicon-anode roadmap — strategic alignment is deep, not superficial.